The narrative is growing louder by the day. Skip Bayless recently declared on his show that “Patrick Mahomes is no longer Patrick Mahomes,” calling him a “dink-and-dunk artist” who’s “playing like a grandpa at the ripe old age of 29.” Sports Illustrated published articles questioning “what effects will another down year have on Chiefs’ Mahomes,” and analysts are openly wondering if we’re witnessing the decline of the NFL’s golden boy.
For the first time in his career as Kansas City’s starter, Mahomes did not earn a Pro Bowl selection in 2024. The critics point to his “underwhelming” statistics, his supposed regression, and whisper about the end of an era.
Here’s the thing: they’re dead wrong.
The Critics Are Missing the Forest for the Trees
Let’s address the elephant in the room. Yes, Mahomes threw for 3,928 yards with 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 2024—numbers that pale in comparison to his MVP seasons. Sports Illustrated noted that “the last two years, Patrick Mahomes has had 27 touchdowns, 26 touchdown passes. This past season, less than 4,000 yards passing. It was an average season by his standards.”
But here’s what the stat-sheet scouts are conveniently ignoring: winning is the only statistic that truly matters.
The Ultimate Statistic: An Unprecedented Win Rate
While critics obsess over passing yards and touchdown totals, let’s talk about the number that actually determines greatness: Patrick Mahomes has a career record of 89-23, which translates to a stunning 79.5% winning percentage.
Read that again. 79.5%.
If he retired today (which is extremely unlikely), Mahomes’ winning percentage would be the highest of any quarterback in NFL history. For context, Tom Brady—the so-called GOAT—retired with a 75% win rate. Joe Montana, widely considered the most clutch quarterback ever, never approached this level of sustained excellence.
Mahomes notched his 15th playoff win in the 2024 Super Bowl at age 28. Tom Brady didn’t win his 15th playoff game until his age 34 season.
Playoff Dominance That Speaks Volumes
The critics want to focus on regular season statistics? Fine. Let’s talk playoffs, where legends are truly made.
Patrick Mahomes has won 15 of his 18 postseason matchups and has a 15-3 record overall. He has only lost 3 playoff games in his career. Those three losses? Two came against Tom Brady (2018 AFC Championship and Super Bowl LV), and one against the Bengals in 2021.
Over his postseason career, he has thrown for 5,557 yards, 43 touchdowns and just eight interceptions. His postseason performance metrics are actually better than his regular season numbers, which is the hallmark of true greatness.
Mahomes’ 41 playoff passing touchdowns are staggering—Brett Favre recorded the second most by a quarterback in NFL history before his 29th birthday with just 23, and Brady only had 15 by that age.
The Prime Years Argument
At 29 years old, Mahomes isn’t declining—he’s entering his prime. History shows us that elite quarterbacks typically peak in their late twenties and early thirties. Brady’s accomplishments can feel insurmountable, but he didn’t hoist his fourth Lombardi Trophy until he was 37 years old. He got better over time—his eight best statistical seasons all came after his 30th birthday.
Manning won his final Super Bowl at 39. Brees had some of his best seasons in his mid-thirties. Montana’s most iconic moments came when he was 30-plus.
If Mahomes follows this trajectory—and there’s every reason to believe he will—we’re not witnessing a decline. We’re watching the early chapters of what could become the greatest quarterback career in NFL history.
The Context That Critics Ignore
The Chiefs’ 2024 offensive struggles weren’t entirely on Mahomes. The team lost both Rashee Rice and Skyy Moore to season-ending injuries early in the season, spent significant time without Hollywood Brown and Isiah Pacheco, and dealt with offensive line issues that resulted in Mahomes being sacked the most in his career.
Travis Kelce, at 35 years old, showed signs of aging with his lowest yardage total of his career despite the lack of receiving depth that should have set him up for a great statistical season.
Yet despite all these obstacles, what did Mahomes do? He led the Chiefs to a 15-2 regular season record (resting starters in Week 18), clinched the top overall seed in the AFC, and set a new franchise single-season record for wins.
The Historical Precedent
Even CBS Sports’ Pete Prisco, in his recent top 100 players list, acknowledged: “It’s become trendy to say Patrick Mahomes isn’t the same guy he was a few years ago. That’s absurd… Mahomes is still the best player in the NFL, which is why he is No. 1 in my annual ranking.”
Mahomes’ career EPA/play (expected points added per play) of 0.292 is not only the highest among current quarterbacks, but his playoff EPA/play of 0.312 is actually higher than his regular season mark—meaning he elevates his game when it matters most.
The Championship Pedigree
Let’s not forget what we’re actually talking about here. Mahomes has three Super Bowl MVPs, tying him with Joe Montana for second-most in NFL history. He’s led the Chiefs to seven consecutive AFC Championship Game appearances and five Super Bowl appearances since becoming their starting quarterback in 2018.
His 18 playoff starts and 83.3 winning percentage are the top marks by a quarterback in franchise history. After defeating the 49ers for back-to-back Super Bowl titles in Super Bowl LVIII, Mahomes now has three Super Bowl titles, tied for fourth most in NFL history.
The Bottom Line
Skip Bayless can call him a “dink-and-dunk artist.” Analysts can question his arm strength and criticize his interceptions. Pro Bowl voters can snub him for flashier statistical seasons.
None of it matters.
What matters is this: Mahomes’ NFL winning percentage of 78% in the regular season and playoffs combined is the highest of any quarterback to start at least 100 games. The Chiefs are 89-25 with Mahomes at the helm, losing just four of those 114 games by more than one score.
At 29 years old, with the best offensive mind in football (Andy Reid) and an organization built for sustained success, Patrick Mahomes isn’t entering his twilight years. He’s entering his prime.
The scary part for the rest of the NFL? If he follows the typical quarterback aging curve, his best football might still be ahead of him. While critics debate his arm strength and nitpick his statistics, Mahomes will continue doing what he does best: winning football games at a rate that’s never been seen before.
Sorry, NFL. The Mahomes era isn’t ending—it’s just getting started.
The 2025 season will be a defining year for Mahomes’ legacy. Will the critics eat their words, or will they find new narratives to explain away continued excellence? History suggests we already know the answer.
