After doubling their win total in 2024, Arizona looks to break into the playoffs — but can Murray stay healthy and the defense take the leap?
A Detailed Analysis for ODDS911.com and Professional NFL Analyst Tommy Mac
Executive Summary
The Arizona Cardinals enter 2025 with cautious optimism after doubling their win total from 4 to 8 in 2024. With Kyler Murray healthy, significant defensive investments, and improved chemistry building in training camp, this could be a make-or-break season for both coach Jonathan Gannon and the franchise’s playoff aspirations.
Five-Year Performance History
Last 5 Years Win Percentage:
- 2024: 8-9 (.471)
- 2023: 4-13 (.235)
- 2022: 4-13 (.235)
- 2021: 11-6 (.647) – Playoff berth
- 2020: 8-8 (.500)
The Cardinals have struggled for consistency, with only one playoff appearance (2021) in the last five seasons. Their 2024 improvement under Jonathan Gannon showed promise, but they collapsed down the stretch, losing 5 of their final 7 games to miss the postseason.
Playoff History (Last 5 Years): Only 2021 saw a playoff berth, where they lost in the Wild Card Round to the Los Angeles Rams. This franchise hasn’t won a playoff game since 2015 and has made the playoffs just once since 2015.
Kyler Murray: The Centerpiece
Leadership Development
Murray returned from injury with improved health and is taking on increased leadership responsibilities in his seventh NFL season. Safety Budda Baker says Murray has “been in his bag this whole offseason, doing no-look throws and having a great offseason training camp”, suggesting renewed confidence and preparation.
Training Camp Status
Early reports from training camp are overwhelmingly positive, with Murray “lighting it up” in practice sessions and showing improved chemistry with receivers. He appears healthy and is reportedly planning to increase his rushing attempts, which could unlock the dual-threat ability that made him dangerous early in his career.
Statistical Profile (2020-2024)
- Career Completion Percentage: 67.1% (3rd best in franchise history)
- 2024 Stats: 3,851 yards, 21 TDs, 11 INTs, 68.8% completion
- Career Passer Rating: 92.4 (best in Cardinals history)
- Rushing Production: 572 yards, 5 TDs in 2024 (best since 2020)
Playoff Record & Concerns
Murray’s playoff record stands at 0-1, with the 2021 Wild Card loss to the Rams. His inconsistency remains the primary concern – he’s thrown multiple touchdowns in only three games last season and struggled in crucial late-season matchups.
Injury Status
Currently healthy entering training camp. The ACL injury from 2022 appears fully behind him after playing all 17 games in 2024 for the first time since 2020.
Coaching Leadership
Jonathan Gannon Background
Gannon, 42, is a Cleveland native with 17 years of NFL experience who played safety at Louisville until a career-ending hip injury. He served as defensive coordinator for Philadelphia’s Super Bowl LVII team.
Playing Experience: High school three-sport athlete at Saint Ignatius in Cleveland – won state championships in basketball and was a district champion in track. His college football career ended as a freshman at Louisville due to hip injury.
Coaching Credentials:
- No relation to former Raiders QB Rich Gannon
- Rose through NFL ranks from scout to defensive coordinator
- Led Eagles defense that set NFL record with 70 sacks in 2022
Gannon’s Impact
Gannon faces pressure entering Year 3, with his defensive background finally supported by upgraded talent. His energetic leadership style has earned player support, but he needs results after going 12-22 in his first two seasons.
Defensive Coordinator Nick Rallis: Continued from Gannon’s staff, has worked creatively with limited talent but now has upgraded personnel to implement his schemes.
Organizational Structure
Owner Michael Bidwill
Third-generation owner whose grandfather Charles Bidwill bought the team for $50,000 in 1933. The team moved from Chicago to St. Louis in 1960, then to Arizona in 1988.
Fan Sentiment: Recent workplace culture investigations have damaged Bidwill’s reputation, with former employees describing an “abusive and intimidating” environment. However, his commitment to winning is evident through recent investments in facilities and coaching.
General Manager Monti Ossenfort
Background: Former Patriots scout who joined as GM in January 2023. Known for draft-and-develop philosophy focused on power conference players.
2025 Offseason Moves:
- Best Move: Signing EDGE Josh Sweat (4-year, $76.4M) – reunites with Gannon
- Defense Focused: Added Dalvin Tomlinson, Calais Campbell, Walter Nolen III
- Philosophy: All but one of his 21 draft picks have come from major conferences, showing clear strategy
Quarterback Room Analysis
Depth Chart:
- Kyler Murray – Established starter entering prime years
- Jacoby Brissett – Veteran backup signed to 2-year deal, brings extensive NFL experience
- Clayton Tune – Developmental prospect whose roster spot is uncertain
If Murray goes down, Brissett provides capable veteran leadership, though the offense would lose its dynamic rushing element.
Offensive & Defensive Outlook
Offensive Coordinator Drew Petzing (Since 2023)
Mixed results in his tenure. The offense showed flashes but lacked consistency, particularly in Murray-Harrison connection. Scoring average in 2024 was inconsistent, though the unit finished strong in several games.
O-Line Concerns: Right guard remains a question mark, though the return of Jonah Williams at right tackle should help. Sack numbers from 2024 were problematic and need improvement.
Defense Under Rallis
2024 Improvement: Massive jump from 32nd in defensive DVOA (2023) to 14th in 2024 despite facing the third-hardest schedule of opposing offenses.
2025 Additions:
- Josh Sweat (70.0 PFF grade)
- Calais Campbell (returning Cardinal)
- Dalvin Tomlinson
- Walter Nolen III (first-round pick)
Special Teams
Coaching continuity maintained with generally solid performance, though specific standout statistics from 2024 aren’t available in current data.
Key Relationships & Chemistry
Murray-Harrison Jr. Connection
The development of chemistry between Murray and Harrison Jr. is critical – they weren’t consistently on the same page in 2024 despite Harrison’s 885 yards and 8 TDs. Early training camp reports show significant improvement in their connection.
Realistic Playoff & Super Bowl Expectations
Playoff Probability
The Cardinals face a challenging NFC West with 49ers, Rams, and Seahawks. Their schedule includes games against playoff-caliber teams, requiring significant improvement against quality opponents.
Realistic Assessment: 7-10 to 9-8 range. Playoff berth possible but requires:
- Murray staying healthy all season
- Defensive improvements translating to wins
- Better execution in close games (3-5 in one-possession games in 2024)
Super Bowl Odds
Current Super Bowl odds: +4200 to +5000. Extremely unlikely given division strength and inconsistency issues.
Betting Analysis
Win Total
Over/Under set at 8.5 wins across major sportsbooks
The Value Play: OVER 8.5 wins appears to offer value based on:
- Defensive improvements should translate to 2-3 additional wins
- Murray’s health and improved preparation
- Positive regression candidate after 3-5 record in close games
- Easier schedule strength compared to 2024
Player Props to Watch
- Kyler Murray Passing Yards: Over/Under likely around 3,800-4,000
- Murray Rushing Yards: Over 500 (he hit 572 in 2024 and plans to run more)
- Marvin Harrison Jr. Receiving Yards: Over 1,000 (sophomore leap expected)
- Cardinals Team Sacks: Significant improvement expected with new pass rushers
Playoff Odds
+125 to make playoffs – represents solid value if you believe in the defensive improvements
Bottom Line Assessment
The Smart Money:
- OVER 8.5 wins (-120) – Best value in the market
- Cardinals to make playoffs +125 – Worth a smaller wager?
- Murray Over rushing yards props – He’s committed to running more
Avoid:
- Super Bowl futures (too many variables)
- Under 8.5 wins (defensive improvement should prevent another 4-13 collapse)
The Sleeper Angle: This Cardinals team has significantly more talent than their reputation suggests. If Murray and Harrison Jr. develop chemistry early, and the defense performs as upgraded talent suggests, 10-11 wins isn’t impossible, but still improbable.
The Cardinals represent a classic “show me” team, but long gone from the ‘show me state’ – talented enough to surprise but inconsistent enough to disappoint. For betting purposes, the positive regression and defensive improvements make the OVER on 8.5 wins the highest-value play in their entire futures market.
Final Verdict: Cautiously optimistic. This roster has playoff capability, but execution and injury luck will determine if they realize that potential.
