Here’s my comprehensive breakdown on the Indianapolis Colts heading into the 2025-26 season. After 31 years analyzing NFL teams from Vegas, I’m giving you the complete picture on where I believe this franchise stands as they enter another pivotal year. Check out more analysis at Odds911.com.
THE RECORD SPEAKS FOR ITSELF
The Indianapolis Colts had a 41-42-1 record since 2020 – that’s a .494 winning percentage over five years. We’re talking about a franchise stuck in no man’s land. The Indianapolis Colts last made the playoffs in 2020, when they lost the Wild Card Round to Buffalo. Since then? Four straight seasons watching January from the couch.
ANDREW LUCK ERA VS. THE WILDERNESS YEARS
Here’s where it gets painful for Colts fans. Andrew Luck finished his career with a 4-4 record in the playoffs, but let me tell you the tale of two eras. During Luck’s prime (2012-2018), this team had three straight playoff appearances from 2012-2014, including a 45-44 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs, the third-highest scoring game in postseason history – that legendary comeback from 28 down.
Post-Luck? The Indianapolis Colts last played a home playoff game on Jan 4, 2015, 10 years ago. That’s a decade of mediocrity, folks. One wild card appearance in 2020 with Philip Rivers, and that’s it. The contrast is stark – with Luck they were competitive, without him they’re spinning their wheels.
THE QUARTERBACK CIRCUS OF 2025
Now here’s where it gets interesting from a handicapping perspective. Anthony Richardson had his best day of camp according to the latest training camp reports, but this kid’s been more fragile than fine china. After missing 19 starts over the past two seasons—albeit two were due to a 2-game near midseason benching last year, Richardson has to be able to consistently stay healthy.
The competition with Daniel Jones is real. Head coach Shane Steichen said Jones and Richardson would split reps evenly during OTA and minicamp practices this spring, and from what I’m seeing at Grand Park, Jones and Richardson split first-team reps evenly in seven-on-seven and full-team periods.
Here’s my read: Richardson has the higher ceiling but Jones brings stability. Richardson completed just 47.7% of his throws last season — the lowest rate among the NFL’s regular starters. That’s Tim Tebow territory, and that ain’t winning football.
COACHING CHANGES – THE LOU ANARUMO FACTOR
The biggest move this offseason was canning Gus Bradley and bringing in Lou Anarumo as their new defensive coordinator. Cincinnati’s defense in 2024 finished top 10 in the NFL in interceptions (15, T-8th), pick-sixes (two, T-3rd) and passes defensed (79, 9th).
But here’s the kicker – despite the change up top, most of the defensive staff will return in 2025. That tells me they’re tweaking, not overhauling. The Colts’ defense has consistently placed in the bottom-third of the NFL in scoring over the last few seasons, so Anarumo’s got his work cut out.
OWNERSHIP AND TEAM CHEMISTRY
Here’s something that can’t be overlooked – the passing of Jim Irsay has created a transition period. Irsay-Gordon began wearing a headset years ago to listen to coaches’ communications during games, which raises questions about the decision-making structure and how much operational control will shift under new leadership. This kind of organizational uncertainty rarely translates to on-field success.
THE BETTING ANGLES – WHERE THE MONEY’S MADE
Now let’s talk brass tacks. The Indianapolis Colts carry an over/under of 7.5 wins in 2025 and Currently, the Indianapolis Colts sport +8500 odds to win the Super Bowl.
MY LEAN: I’m taking the UNDER 7.5 wins at +105. Here’s why – The Colts finished 5-0 when they ran the ball at least 34 times and 8-2 when they ran the ball at least 27 times. In all other games: 0-7 SU. Problem is, they lost key offensive line pieces in Will Fries and Ryan Kelly.
PLAYOFF ODDS: Division Odds @ +300 and Playoff Odds @ +170. The division is there for the taking, but I don’t trust this QB situation.
PLAYER PROPS TO WATCH:
OFFENSE: Tyler Warren, the rookie TE from Penn State. Tyler Warren a frequent target. Snagging balls all over in camp. I’m looking at his receiving yards prop – rookie tight ends with good hands in Steichen’s system could be gold.
DEFENSE: Keep an eye on any Laiatu Latu sack props. Second-year pass rushers often make the leap, and Anarumo loves to dial up pressure.
FANTASY SLEEPER: Anthony Richardson if he wins the job. The upside is massive even with the accuracy issues. On defense, Kenny Moore II in IDP leagues – he’s a tackle machine in the slot.
BOTTOM LINE
This is a 7-win team masquerading as an 8-9 win team. The defense might improve under Anarumo, but until they solve the quarterback riddle, they’re stuck in purgatory.
THE REALISTIC CHANCES: 25% chance at a winning season. The division is weak enough that 8-9 could sneak into the playoffs, but this roster has too many question marks. Save your money for better spots, or if you’re feeling frisky, take a small flyer on the UNDER 7.5 wins.
Remember – in this business, it’s not about being right all the time, it’s about finding value where the market’s got it wrong. The Colts are a classic “middle team” that books love to shade toward the over because of public perception.
