A full-season breakdown of the Raiders’ playoff odds, Geno Smith prop bets, win total value, and why Vegas bettors should keep their expectations in check.
Professional Analysis for ODDS911.com by: Tommy Mac
Will the Raiders be the Faders Again This Season?
The Las Vegas Raiders enter 2025 with renewed hope under head coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Spytek, anchored by the reunion of Carroll with quarterback Geno Smith. After years of instability and disappointment, this new regime represents the organization’s most promising reset since their move to Las Vegas.
Bottom Line Up Front: The Raiders are positioned for modest improvement in 2025, with realistic expectations of 6-8 wins. While playoff contention remains challenging in the loaded AFC West, the foundation being laid suggests potential breakthrough seasons ahead.
HISTORICAL CONTEXT: LAST 5 YEARS PERFORMANCE
Las Vegas Raiders’ five-year win percentage (2020–2024) is .429 or 43% win average
Win-Loss Record (2020-2024)
- 2024: 4-13 (.235) – Last in AFC West
- 2023: 8-9 (.471) – Missed playoffs
- 2022: 6-11 (.353) – Missed playoffs
- 2021: 10-7 (.588) – Wild Card appearance, lost to Bengals
- 2020: 8-8 (.500) – Missed playoffs
Five-Year Average: 7.2 wins per season
Playoff History (2020-2024)
The Raiders made just one playoff appearance in the last five years (2021 Wild Card). The Raiders failed to qualify for the playoffs for the third consecutive season in 2024, marking their continued struggles in postseason contention.
2021 Playoff Performance: Lost 26-19 to Cincinnati Bengals in Wild Card round – their only playoff game in the five-year span.
QUARTERBACK SITUATION: GENO SMITH ANALYSIS
Leadership and Training Camp Performance
Through two days of training camp, players have been animated about the 34-year-old’s leadership and the energy he has brought to the team since he arrived in Las Vegas in the spring. Center Jackson Powers-Johnson noted “First time he stepped [into the building], he’s lifting, throwing [and] talking trash. Age is not defining him.”
Health Status and Injury Concerns
Currently, Smith appears healthy entering training camp with no significant injury concerns reported. Raiders coach Pete Carroll said Tuesday that “everyone will be ready to go” when asked whether Las Vegas’ starters will suit up for Thursday’s preseason opener.
Injury History Analysis: Smith has shown improved durability in recent years compared to his early career struggles. His Seattle tenure (2019-2024) demonstrated better consistency in availability.
Career Statistics and Performance Metrics
NFL Career Stats (through 2024):
- 94 career games with 83 starts and completed 1,721-of-2,655 passes (64.8 percent) for 19,143 yards, 105 touchdowns, 72 interceptions and a 88.0 passer rating
- Last 3 Seasons (2022-2024) with Seattle: 68.5 percent completion percentage, tied for the fifth-most 300+ passing yard games in the league
Key Performance Indicators:
- 2022 (Career Year): 4,282 passing yards, 30 TDs, 11 INTs, 100.9 passer rating
- 2023: 3,624 passing yards, 20 TDs, 9 INTs
- 2024: 4,283 passing yards, career-high in attempts and completions
Playoff Record and Experience
Smith’s first career postseason start came against the San Francisco 49ers in the Wild Card Round. He completed 25 of 35 passes for 253 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception, while also losing a fumble, as the Seahawks lost, 41-23.
Playoff Performance Analysis: Smith’s limited playoff experience (1 game, 0-1 record) remains a question mark. His 2022 playoff loss showed both promise and inexperience under pressure.
System Fit and Consistency Expectations
Smith appeared to be incredibly excited about Chip Kelly’s offense, which he said is less complex on players, allowing them to play free and fast while giving them answers for anything the defense throws at them.
COACHING ANALYSIS
Pete Carroll: Credentials and Background
Carroll played college football at the University of the Pacific as a free safety, earning All-Pacific Coast Athletic Conference honors both years (1971–72). After graduation, Carroll tried out for the Honolulu Hawaiians of the World Football League but did not make the team due to shoulder problems combined with his small size.
Professional Coaching Credentials:
Pete Carroll’s career NFL head coaching win percentage is .586, or 58.6%
- NFL Head Coaching Record: 170-120-1 across 19 seasons
- Super Bowl Champion: 2013 with Seattle (43-8 vs Denver)
- College Success: 97-19 record at USC with 2 national championships
- Career Achievements: One of only three coaches to win both a Super Bowl and college national championship
Pete Carroll may have the résumé, but Raiders fans aren’t handing out free passes in 2025. His legacy means nothing if the secondary gets torched again this season. As one brutal headline puts it: “Hey Micro-Bropper Coach Carroll—Spit Out the Gum and Pay Attention to Your Weak Secondary or Become Another F-A-D-E-R”. The message is clear: it’s time to coach like every game matters.
Carroll’s Expectations and Philosophy
Carroll made it clear that he is striving for at least 10 wins in his first season in Las Vegas. “I’ve been winning 10 games a year for 20 years or something,” Carroll said. “What are my expectations? We are going to win a bunch, and I don’t care who hears that.”
Defensive Coordinator Patrick Graham
Patrick Graham enters his 17th season in the NFL and his fourth season as the defensive coordinator with the Raiders. Graham brings continuity to a defense that showed flashes despite inconsistent offensive support in 2024.
Offensive Coordinator Chip Kelly
Kelly’s appointment as offensive coordinator represents a significant philosophical shift toward a more up-tempo, player-friendly system that should maximize Smith’s skill set and the team’s young talent.
OFFENSIVE LINE ANALYSIS
2024 Performance Issues
The Las Vegas Raiders were sacked 50 times in 2024, ranking them poorly in quarterback protection. Las Vegas surrendered 25 sacks and 178 pressures. They also had the lowest rushing success rate (33.7 percent) while generating the second-lowest yards before contact (1.6).
2025 Outlook and Improvements
Kolton Miller posted his fourth straight season with an 80+ PFF grade despite his struggles allowing pressures. The team also has a long-term answer at center in Jackson Powers-Johnson.
Current Starting Lineup:
- LT: Kolton Miller
- LG: Dylan Parham/Jordan Meredith (competition)
- C: Jackson Powers-Johnson
- RG: Alex Cappa
- RT: DJ Glaze
DEFENSIVE ANALYSIS
2024 Defensive Performance
The Raiders’ defense showed resilience despite facing challenging circumstances. Vegas ranked eighth in defensive DVOA in 2023 and dropped to 17th last season, per ftnfantasy.com. The falloff lacks surprise when one considers the upgrade in difficulty. In 2023, Las Vegas faced the 18th-hardest set of offenses before facing the sixth-hardest set in 2024.
Key Defensive Personnel
- Maxx Crosby: The Raiders agreed to a record-breaking three-year, $106.5 million extension for pass rusher Maxx Crosby
- Linebacker Corps: Germaine Pratt, coming from Cincinnati, has shown the sort of heady, physical, fast-playing linebacker he can be. Devin White, who was with Spytek in Tampa, looks like he’s got new life
SPECIAL TEAMS EVALUATION
Pros:
- Stable kicking game with reliable contributors
- Adequate coverage units
Cons:
- Return game lacks explosive playmakers
- Inconsistent punting situational awareness
Key 2024 Stat: The Raiders struggled with field position battles, often starting drives in poor field position due to special teams lapses.
OWNERSHIP AND MANAGEMENT
Mark Davis: Owner Analysis
Mark Davis faces continued scrutiny as players didn’t always feel previous head coach Antonio Pierce was efficient with their time, but Pete Carroll is the man in charge now. His hiring of Carroll and Spytek represents a more measured, experienced approach compared to previous impulsive decisions.
General Manager John Spytek
Background and Credentials: Spytek, 44, has been working in the league for 21 seasons since he was hired as an operations intern by the Detroit Lions in 2004. During his time in Tampa Bay, Spytek helped draft four players who earned PFWA All-Rookie Team honors and was integral in the signings of key free agents including Tom Brady.
Key 2025 Moves:
- Best Trade: Acquiring Geno Smith for a 3rd round pick
- Best Signing: Extending Maxx Crosby
- Draft Strategy: Spytek traded down twice in the second round, accumulating more picks to build depth
Fan Grade: B+ for aggressive but measured approach to team building
ROSTER OUTLOOK AND KEY ADDITIONS
Significant Additions
- QB Geno Smith: Veteran stability and leadership
- RB Ashton Jeanty: His contact balance is rare, he can pull away from defenders, and his low-to-the-ground build makes him difficult for defenders to locate before he’s past them
Notable Departures
The Raiders moved on from several veterans while retaining core pieces like Brock Bowers and building around young talent.
BETTING ANGLES AND OPPORTUNITIES
Where the Smart Money Should Look
Best Value Bets:
- Under 7.5 Regular Season Wins: The Raiders’ 2025 win total is set at 7.5 wins at BetMGM – This number seems aggressive given AFC West competition
- Division Finish: Last place in AFC West (+110) offers value
- Geno Smith Season Props: Over completion percentage (68.5%) – strong value given system fit
Contrarian Angles:
- AFC West teams’ over wins may be overvalued
- Raiders’ defensive improvement could surprise
Player Props to Watch
Geno Smith:
- Passing Yards: Over 4,000 (system should inflate numbers)
- Completion %: Over 67.5% (career 68.5% last 3 years)
- Interceptions: Under 13.5 (conservative system fit)
Ashton Jeanty:
- Rushing Yards: Over 850 (rookie season projection)
- Touchdowns: Over 6.5 (red zone opportunity)
Maxx Crosby:
- Sacks: Over 11.5 (healthy, motivated, extended)
Brock Bowers:
- Receiving Yards: Over 900 (improved QB play)
- Receptions: Over 75 (target monster potential)
REALISTIC PLAYOFF AND SUPER BOWL EXPECTATIONS
Playoff Probability: 25%
The AFC West remains brutally competitive with Kansas City, Los Angeles Chargers, and Denver all fielding strong rosters. Maybe there’s some way Las Vegas can get out of the basement in the division and compete for a wild-card spot, but that’s a big ask in a very tough AFC West.
Super Bowl Odds: <1%
The Raiders would probably be thrilled to feel like they’re improving rather than contending for championships in Year 1 of the Carroll era.
Fan Sentiment
Cautious optimism pervades the fanbase. The Carroll hire and Smith acquisition represent competent, professional moves that suggest a more stable organizational direction.
PRESEASON SEATTLE GAME ANALYSIS
Storylines to Watch
- Carroll and Smith’s return to Seattle
- Raiders veteran running back Raheem Mostert missed practice due to the birth of his child
- Offensive line cohesion under new system
Position Battles
- Center: Carroll said it has been a good battle at center, and he wants both players to compete for playing time between Jackson Powers-Johnson and Jordan Meredith
- Wide Receiver: Depth chart establishment beyond established starters
BOTTOM LINE: WIN TOTAL PREDICTION
Official Prediction: 6.5 Wins (Under 7.5)
Rationale: Based on an improved defense, I predict the Raiders clear 6.5 wins. The fact that happened and the Raiders ONLY fell eight spots gives me optimism about its defense heading into 2025.
The Raiders face the easiest projected schedule based on opponents’ offensive DVOA ratings, providing opportunity for modest improvement. However, the AFC West’s strength and organizational growing pains under new leadership suggest a patient approach remains wise.
Ceiling: 9 wins if everything breaks right Floor: 5 wins if injuries/chemistry issues arise
Most Likely: 6-7 wins with clear improvement trajectory
The 2025 season represents foundation-building rather than championship contention, but the Raiders appear to finally have competent leadership committed to sustainable success.
